Wow – this should be an action packed slate considering there’s only 4 games. There’s lots of different options and the pricing on the Southern Miss players is out-of-whack a bit because they haven’t been on many slates all season. This should make for some really entertaining action. I’ll be back soon with my Saturday slate of game picks too. Good luck!
Nick Mullens – Southern Miss
I don’t read what other analysts normally write about college football DFS – not that I don’t think it’s worth reading, I just want to form my own opinion here so you guys don’t just read the same stuff everywhere. Anyway, if people aren’t talking about Mullens – that should be great news for you. I remember playing him in CFB DFS in years past – I’m guessing Southern Miss just wasn’t on a ton of slates this season. His worst games this season are againt two very solid defenses. I think he’s viable in cash & tournaments on both sites …. which is rare. Just don’t go too wild, this is college football – not the NFL.
Matt Johnson – Bowling Green
Being the same price as Brandon Doughty on DK might give him some added appeal in GPP 3x 4x/winner take all type situations since the natural move would be to go with Doughty. Other than that, it’s a pretty standard matchup where NIU is worse at covering the pass vs their run defense which is slightly above average. I think Johnson rates to stay in-line with what he’s been doing.
Brandon Doughty – WKU
I think the Vegas line confirms what I think about the Sourthern Miss defense …. that it’s probably overrated on paper. They really didn’t play too many difficult teams – especially recently. They certainly never faced an elite passer like Doughty. I think you can project Doughty anywhere in that 19 – 33 fantasy point range with upside in the low 40’s if he really gets it rolling.
Greg Ward Jr – Houston
Okay, so the closest comparison to Ward (dual threat QB) that Temple has faced recently was Matt Davis of SMU about a month ago. Davis had 167 passing yards + 1 TD and 102 rushing yards on 17 carries + 1 TD in a game that was 60 – 40. Vegas see’s this being a little tighter – and the lines actually come down, but I wouldn’t be too concerned since Ward should account for the majority of Houston’s offense.
P.J. Walker – Temple
Certainly viable in tournament lineups. You probably don’t want to go wild starting him because Houston has an elite NFL 1st round pick DB in William Jackson, but I’d say Walker’s matchup/salary are better than what you normally can find in a short slate. Houston has given up 263 yards per game to passers and they have a defense that is hard to run on.
Tommy Fiedler – NIU
Honestly I think he could be worth a shot in a GPP type scenario – especially on Draftkings as a cheap #2 QB. If you look what the old starter did, I think his upside is about 21 fantasy points so no need to go wild with him. Bowling Green is a favorable matchup for a passing QB like Fiedler + NIU is likely to be throwing late in this game. Another thing to keep in mind Graham is still available to play, he just won’t start.
One strategy I could see doing is fading Mullins, but starting his WRs since they are all value priced. I’m not saying that is an optimal strategy – but it’s something you can think about when building lineups. Honestly – if you’re playing GPPs and starting Fiedler or Johnson I think you can take a shot at a few more WRs than I have listed here. If you just want to be really outside the box, start someone from Baylor/Texas.
Michael (Mike) Thomas – Southern Miss
Strongest Pair with Mullens
Tyler Higbee – WKU
$4,700 Fanduel (Listed At TE)
His Draftkings ranking is much higher than his Fanduel. At $4,700 you can almost play him 100%. He’s still an elite TE play on Fanduel … I just wouldn’t go out of my way to roster him if the matchup don’t work elsewhere in your lineup.
Kenny Golladay – NIU
I don’t think I love him enough as the #1 priced WR on Fanduel, so I think if you want exposure to Golladay, play him on Draftkings at $6,400.
Gehrig Dieter – Bowling Green
Has been smoking hot and might fly under the radar a bit with all the other guys to pick from. I think you target him & Johsnon in lineups together. Teammate Roger Lewis is likely going to be in line for a bounce back at some point too.
Nicholas Norris – WKU
I consider him an elite tournament option and a very selective cash game option at these levels.
Demarcus Ayers – Houston
Always viable, especially stacking with Ward since he’s the main target.
Taywan Taylor – WKU
Alway reliable, just needs to get TDs though.
Casey Martin – Southern Miss
2nd Strongest Pair with Mullens
Antwane Grant – WKU
Jared Dangerfield – WKU
Has cooled off again. I think you get some exposure to him though.
D.J. Thompsaon (GPPs Only) – Southern Miss
Possible GPP Pair with Mullens
Chris Warren – Texas
On Draftkings he’s kind of at that ‘why not’ type price. On Fanduel you need to stop & think. He’s not going to get you 57 fantasy points, but I have a good feeling he’ll be starting. Now you just need Texas to stop Baylor’s run game and maybe he can get 27 touches again.
Anthony Wales – WKU
Not sure he has 2+ TD upside in this game, but you never really know. Certainly a tournament RB since he does have 40+ point upside at times. If you think WKU gets a big lead – his value increases.
Jalen Richard – Southern Miss
Ito Smith – Southern Miss
Who knows what to expect here, but with all the other uncertainly at RB in this slate – I don’t think your risk is as large as it normally might be.
Joel Bouagnon – NIU
I think you have to hope for a bounce back game here. But being a 13 point underdog on the road should make you somewhat cautious. However with the limited number of viable RBs it’s tough to not hope.
Shock Linwood – Baylor
Devin Chafin – Baylor
If you can get confirmation Linwood is out, Chafin is a late-swap type starter. Linwood has been practicing/improving. This is a good matchup where you have to figure Baylor’s gameplan is to run. I wouldn’t feel good about starting either one of these guys if the information stays the same – except in the rare 10% roster exposure type tournament lineup.