Okay – so what I did here was just posted the Thursday bowl games. Fanduel is sperating these out, but Draftkings has a Thurs/Friday slate. I’m going to post a Friday only piece a little bit later on. Personally, I think you fade QB – and subsequently WR out of the Thursday games on Draftkings – and just pick your players tomorrow. Time is always your friend in DFS, and when you can take an extra day over some of your opponents – I’ve learned you should take it. Running back will be harder to fade, but there’s enough talent you can just enter a lineup with no Thursday games on DK and be fine.
It’s up to you how you play it – but here’s the 3 games we’re working with on Thursday:
DeShaun Watson – Clemson
At this point, none of the matchups are going to be easy … so you kind of got to roll with your gut. Both these teams can fill up the scordboard pretty quickly so I like Watson if you can fit him in.
Baker Mayfield – Oklahoma
Tough to figure out how this one will turn out. It’s a tough matchup for almost all the QBs, so saving a few bucks on Mayfield might not be a terrible idea. If they get a lead, the coach will probably grind it out. If they fall behind, he could get 30 passing attempts.
Sean Maguire – Florida State
Cheapest QB you can roll with realistically. Risky, but if all the other QBs brick, he could become a valuable play. This is by far the best matchup on the board.
Greg Ward – Houston
Pretty tough matchup. Could have some value late in the game in garbage time.
Connor Cook – MSU
Okay, he’s the cheapest/risky QB you can consider. The one time Alabama lost, they got lit up through the air. That’s how MSU will win.
Okay – so you’re not loving any of these matchups. Very difficult slate with great defenses.
Derrick Henry – Alabama
If you don’t know who Henry is & what award he won this year … please send me H2H invites to play!!!!! Not a matchup I’d normally get involved in a full slate, but Henry is a 40 touch guy and is capable of a big game against any team.
Dalvin Cook – Florida State
Cook pretty much lit it up against everyone except when he got hurt or Boston College – which is an elite run defense. I think Florida State can loosen up the run defense by passing – and since he’s a 25+ touch guy … Cook edges the competition just a bit.
Samaje Perine – Oklahoma
$7.3k DK – $8.3k FD
Joe Mixon – Oklahoma
$5.2k DK – $6.1k FD
Mixon is more of a GPP gamble type play. Perine is going to need at least 15 touches against a defense like this.
Wayne Gallman – Clemson
All these are tough run defenses. Has an advantage over some other backs for me in cash games only because there’s not a ton of other guys that usually get carries.
Okay, so it’s again marginal between players for the most part because the matchups are difficult. In that case, I’m really just listing my cash game WRs. Everyone that has a track record is viable though. What I would probably do is play strategy with WR. Stacking is the obvious one, however in H2H’s you can scoop some of the upside of the QB (you think they are playing) by playing his main target. That should dictate who you play at QB … ect. When the matchups are tough – remember that everyone has to pick from the matchups, and thinking about game theory/strategy is more effective than the players/games.
Sterling Shepard – Oklahoma
There will be several times where you’ll be watching this game and there’s a ball in the air destined for Shepard. He needs to connect to pay off these prices.
Aaron Burbridge – Michigan State
I like play the teams best players in bowl games that mean something. Chances are coaches will try to get him 6+ touches.
Calvin Ridley – Alabama
I like him more on DK in the full point PPR – but I tend to lean toward high volume guys, just in case the big play guys brick out.