Daily Fantasy NFL : 2016 Preview

The NFL is back, and so is Daily Fantasy Football.

 

I’m a firm believer that rotisserie helps you with daily fantasy, as it shows you the numbers and with only 16 regular season games per team, each day is worth 6.25% of the season.

Position ranks are key,

And it’s good to start off with a list of how you think players will do over the season, and adjust that week by week based on subtle changes and of course opposition ranking.

 

Always remember that Football is a reliable sport, which means that the QB relies on the O-line & the receivers to catch the ball, and also a WR relies upon a good throwing QB.

 

Another thing to do is check the point spread on a betting website.

So in daily fantasy you want to decide on your mentality.

Risk Capitalize?

Hedge?

Risk Capitalize

Basically means that if you think the Steelers are going to score a lot of points in the game, then you would look to insert both Antonio Brown & Ben Roethlisberger in your team, however if the Steelers don’t score as well as you thought, or the points are gained by Running / Special Teams then those players are a let-down.

Hedge

This is where you would only play one of them, depending on player cost & other options available. While you won’t get crazy points for a 25 yard TD pass to Brown you will still benefit a decent amount and have a chance with another QB or WR.

So without further ado here are my Top’s.

 

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TOP 10 Quarterbacks

1 Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers

This could be the Packers year; He didn’t have the greatest numbers last season yet still almost got the magic 4,000 yards in passing mark, finishing with 3,821.

If Rodgers can get his pass completion rate back above 65% he could be #1.

 

2 Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers

The only thing in my opinion Newton has to do to improve is to limit the number of Interceptions last year (10) and improve upon his pass completion which was 59.8% last year.

His talent is unquestionable, it’s just how great can he be and can anybody outscore him in fantasy.

 

3 Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts

Luck had an awful year, so in the first couple of games he could be a value pick; I think he can be better than the 2014 version of Luck, which yielded a 61.7% pass completion, and 40 TD’s with less than the awful 16 interceptions.

 

4 Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints

Brees is always going to toss the ball, and I think that the Saints receiving core has improved enough to make them successful, this can only help Brrees and he could lead the league in passing yards. Last year he passed for 4,870 yards and a rate of 68.3%.

 

5 Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger has some awesome receiving lead by #1 fantasy overall Antonio Brown. His QB rating last year of 76.9 was his best ever and it led the Steelers into the post season.

He could have over 4,000 passing yards this year.

 

6 Eli Manning – NY Giants

Manning’s biggest problem has always been turnovers, his TD to Interception rate is around 3. That needs to grow if the Giants are to be successful in 2016/17. With Odel Beckham he has one of the top targets and needs to utilize that.

 

7 Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks

Season highs across the board last year, I don’t think he’ll be quite as good overall however still be good enough to push for the top 5/10 in rankings.

 

8 Tom Brady – New England Patriots

Brady will miss the first four games this season, however I feel sure he will return in a determined frame of mind and put up some big numbers this season. Even missing 4 games he could still throw for 4,000 Yards.

 

9 Phillip Rivers – SD Chargers

Rivers’ numbers last year dipped from great years in 2013-2014, however the SD Chargers are a better team than a 4-12 one of last year.

 

10 Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions

The Lions went 7-9 last year, this year I think Minnesota may struggle more giving Stafford & the Lions something to aim for. I think it’s a risk however I can see the Lions being 8-8 or better and gain a wildcard in 2016/17.

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TOP 10 Wide Receivers

 

1 Antonio Brown – Pittsburgh Steelers

I selected him last year and he tore it up, winning me a fair few dollars, can he repeat and be #1 again? If not he’ll still be top 5.

 

2 A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals

I think many would have Green in the top 10 of WR but 2nd? He has the talent and a QB who can supply good opportunities.

3 Dez Bryant – Dallas Cowboys

Only played 9 games last season, I’d expect his stats to double, and he’ll target 10 TD’s in 2016.

4 Odell Beckham Jr – NY Giants

He was near the top in every wide receiving chart last season, to be a beast he’ll have to achieve 100 receptions and go over 1,500 Yards.

5 T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts

With Luck back Hilton’s numbers can only improve, he also needs to average a TD catch every other game which is a very achievable target.

6 Jordy Nelson – Green Bay Packers

Missing the entire 2015 season, Nelson’s return could be glorious. Rodgers should have another great target and the Packers will be looking at another deep post season.

7 Brandon Marshall – NY Jets

He’s a target in the red zone; I don’t think he will have as good a year as 2015; however it should still be a top 10 season.

8 Sammy Watkins – Buffalo Bills

Watkins missed significant time last year but still posted good numbers for a rookie, with that experience he could and should improve upon his rookie numbers.

9 Julio Jones- Atlanta Falcons

The veteran is an obvious target and many may overlook him but the 27 year old is always a good option to produce good numbers for fantasy players.

10 Julian Edelman – New England Patriots

Edelman should be Tom Brady’s #1 target, and providing he is healthy could rival the big name alternative options at the seasons end.

 

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Top 10 Running Backs

 

1 Arian Foster – Miami Dolphins

When he’s healthy he is the #1, so for a rotisserie league he may not be worth a 1st round pick, however in daily fantasy if he’s fully fit & playing he’s a high points scorer. I think he’ll rebound from last year’s disappointing numbers and could potentially lead the league again.

2 Doug Martin – TB Buccaneers

Even if he only matches 2015 totals he’ll be having a good season, with an improving team maybe he can get to double digits in TD’s and get over 1,500 rushing yards.

3 Jamaal Charles – KC Chiefs

A torn ACL early last year spoiled his 2015, his yards per carry is league leading and he is awesome at powering through the tackles. If the Chiefs are going to compete in 2016 then they’ll need Charles to shine.

4 Eddie Lacy – Green Bay Packers

Everybody was high on Lacy last year, and he disappointed many however I think they had over expectations and this could be the year to build on. Of course when you mention the Packers your first thought is Rodgers.

5 Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings

I doubt he’ll be able to post the same numbers as 2015; however he’ll still have some quality games and therefore will be a stud a few times on Sunday this year.

6 David Johnson – Arizona Cardinals

Towards the end of last year Johnson was epic scoring for fun, He should get more than double the amount of carries & yards this year.

7 Todd Gurley – LA Rams

Gurley’s stock just rose in 2015, making him quite valuable. Can he repeat his rookie year success? Remember all the Rams will be getting used to not just a new stadium but a new home town.

8 LeSean McCoy – Buffalo Bills

McCoy will be hoping he can post 1,500 yards while rushing in 10 TD’s. His average yards per carry from last year were 4.4 which means he gets the job done. The Bills finished .500 last year and will hope to contest the AFC East.

9 Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons went .500 last year and Freeman was the big surprise last year. He may share more time with Coleman this year but he’ll still be a key fantasy player and he’ll also be a good option for his QB. He combined for 14 TD’s last year 11 were rushing TD’s.

10 Lamar Miller – Houston Texans

Miller will see more action than last year, and he could get 2,000 yards combined. I could quite easily see him score 10 TD’s in 2016. The Texans will have to improve this year to stay atop the AFC South as Luck returns for the Colts.

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Top 10 Tight Ends

 

1 Rob Gronkowski – New England Patriots

Gronk is always going to put up points for you, his size and ability are perfect for a tight end. I’d expect he gets the same stats as last year. And he’ll be hoping the Patriots can make another play-off rush.

 

2 Greg Olsen – Carolina Panthers

A great option to pick up the first down for Newton, another 1,000 receiving yards season will cement him as an Elite TE and help Carolina push for another Super Bowl appearance.

 

3 Travis Kelce – KC Chiefs

I think across the board Kelce’s numbers will improve on last year. So in daily fantasy when the Chiefs are up against a weak defence he could be the best option on paper. A definite top 10 TE when healthy.

 

4 Gary Barnidge – Cleveland Browns

Along with RB Devonta Freeman he must have been the biggest surprise, hopefully in 2016 he will replicate last season’s performances and help you with a return on fantasy. Of course he is reliant on a QB and the Browns haven’t had a good record in that respect.

 

5 Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles

Last year was an okay year for Ertz, however I feel both him & the Eagles have improved. In 2015 they finished 7-98 behind the Redskins however I think they’re pushing for #1 in the NFC East.

 

6 Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks

After leaving the Saints he didn’t produce that form in 2015 for his new team, perhaps 2016 will be his year. I’d expect a slight rise in his statistics for this coming season.

 

7 Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins

Quite a few people have Reed as the 2nd best TE behind Gronk; however I don’t feel the Redskins will be as good as they were last season. He had 11 TD’s in 2015 however I don’t think he’ll get double digits this time.

 

8 Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals

Currently injured, He did lead all TE’s with 13 Touch downs last season. Andy Dalton is a quality QB and I think Eifert will be his 2nd target after AJ Green.

 

9 Zach Miller – Chicago Bears

After a horrid start to his pro football career Miller capitalized on his chance late last year, so hopefully he understands his opportunity and he takes it with both hands. Although with his track record he could sadly fade away very quickly. But what is fantasy if not for judging upside / downside.

 

10 Eric Ebron – Detroit Lions

I think Ebron will improve on last season; it’s just by how much. I think he’ll be targeted around 100 times and with Stafford he should get a chance at 60 receptions.

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Top 5 D/ST

 

1 Seattle Seahawks

They average just over 2 sacks and just barely below 1 Interception per game. They were the best last season, and will be a solid top 5 pick.

 

2 Houston Texans

J.J. Watt has turned football defence into entertainment. Complimented with experienced players like Vince Wilfork the Texans are always going to be stronger on the wrong side of the ball.

 

3 KC Chiefs

The Chiefs D were impressive in the latter half of the 2015 regular season, Could we expect an interception once a game? They’ll also be competitive in sacks.

 

4 New England Patriots

No other team caused more forced fumbles than the Patriots last season, They also ranked 2nd in sacks so are a silent pick as many are distracted by Brady & Gronk.

 

5 Carolina Panthers

I don’t think the Panthers will be as good as 2015, however I feel the defence will be top 5 overall and be top of the charts in many defensive categories.

 

So there’s my list for 2016 overall.

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