I’ve left a few guys off my list this week only because I’m not convinced their matchup is the best. Tajh Boyd doesn’t have the worst matchup (Virginia) but hasn’t had more than 2 TDs in 3 weeks, plus he tweaked his knee last week, so that makes me nervous. Devin Gardner faces one of the best passing defenses in the country (at Michigan St.) so I don’t really want to risk that much $$ on him too. So my strategy is to roll with one of the 6 guys I mention here at the top, then go with a risky option below in 2 QB formats.
Week 10 RB Picks
Johnny Football – vs UTEP
This is a game where Johnny should try to rack up some stats so he has a better chance at winning the Heisman at the end of the year. This matchup is so lopsided that some DFS have taken this game off the board. O/U is 76 and Johnny’s team is a 46 point favorite – about all you need to know. If you don’t want to pay up for Johnny, consider getting the WR’s or RBs in this one.
B.J. Denker – at Cal
Cal is basically one of the worst passing defenses in College Football, and virtually every QB has looked good against them. Denker was solid last week, only got 1 TD, but had 265 yard throwing and 192 yards rushing! O/U is 66 and AZ is ‘only’ a 16 point favorite = Green Light.
Brett Hundley – vs Colorado
Remember when Hundley was doing really good at the beginning of the season?? Well, he was playing teams that pretty much sucked on defense, and the last few weeks he’s faced harder teams. This week he gets another cupcake. O/U is 58 and UCLA is a 27 point favorite … so it might be time to get him back in.
Braxton Miller – at Purdue
Appears to be back at full strength and some daily fantasy sites have him as the #1 option at QB this week. He will likely play 3 quarters like he did last week, but managed 5 TDs in that time span. O/U is 56 and OSU is a 32 point favorite – against one of the countries worst defenses.
Jameis Winston – vs Miami
I really don’t love this matchup, but the stats are a little skewed because Miami has only played a few good teams and only 1 currently ranked team. The coach of FSU is going to try and get this guy the Heisman trophy. FSU is a 21.5 favorite and the O/U is 61, but this is a rivalry game, so expect Miami to be ready.
Nick Marshall – at Arkansas
Arkansas defense is probably a little overrated in the press based on the stats I’ve seen, but they aren’t horrible. Nick Marshall came out of last weeks game – but appears to be fine. He’s a running QB that can throw when he needs to. O/U is 54.5 and his team is a 8 point favorite – so he rates to stay in the game as long as he’s healthy.
P.J. Walker – at Rutgers
Rutgers pass defense sucks, but they are pretty good against the run … so I expect Temple’s gameplan will be through the air. Walker has had solid-to-good weeks the last 3 (against weak teams). He had 5 total TDs last week – and has a chance to have another good game throwing this week. He’s only $5,250 on this site, which is below average and below what other DFS have him ranked.
Brandon Mitchell – vs North Carolina
Basically the definition of a sleeper here. Played week 1 and got hurt. Then came back and played a tough Florida State team and got worked. Now he plays UNC who has an OK passing defense, but they struggle against the run, which is this QB’s forte. Only $5,576 on this site, which is over $10,000 less than mid/top tier QBs.
Gary Nova or Chas Dodd – vs Temple
These guys are locked up in a QB battle this week to see who gets to start. There are rumors that the coach might play both QBs during the game (likely). Be sure to search the internet before Saturday’s game (9:00 am EST) to see which guy is going to start. This is a RISKY play, but Temple’s pass defense SUCKS (a freshman had like 5 TDs last week against them).
Tommy Armstrong – vs Northwestern
Only $2,750 here, which is basically nothing. You need to check Taylor Martinez’s injury status on Saturday (3:30 pm EST kickoff) to see if Tommy is starting. He hasn’t lit the world on fire in his starts – and I think your upside is only 2 TDs, but Northwestern is a pretty weak defense – and you could stack your team with studs elsewhere at this price.