MLB Daily Fantasy Lineup Picks 7/20 – Man vs Machine Picks

Hello – here we are again with our second Man vs Machine picks. We’ll be posting more details on the series later in the week … but essentially we’ve got a huge MLB fan who’s making his selections based on knowledge and one DFS player who will rely only on DFS software to make picks. We’ll be posting our results here as we go. We hope this series helps you along your daily fantasy grind!

Hanpicked Player Lineup

Currently I only play on Draft Kings, as I currently don’t stake a great amount of money, and Draft Kings provides me with everything I’m looking for.

Sat at my desk at 4.55am watching Albert Pujols’ beautiful swing for his 2nd 3 run homer of the night, & knowing he didn’t feature in either of my 2 teams wasn’t too bad, as he drove in Mike Trout twice who I picked in one of my teams.

The main team I picked, wasn’t that awful however 2 of my hitters scored 0. I missed out in prizes by 15 points. And as both my scoreless players would combine for an average 18.63 points it shows that last night just wasn’t my night.

Fullscreen capture 20072016 070857

 

Contests Played: 2
Total Stake: $1.25
Paid places: 0
Won: $0

 

My picks for 20th July (all day)

Michael Pineda (NYY) $7,700

There’s no shame giving up all 5 earned runs on 3 HR’s against the Red Sox even if it’s in Yankee stadium. Before that game he averaged 15.56 points per game in 2016.

Jeremy Hellickson (PHI) $7,500

Averaging 15.4 points per start, but going up against the marlins means a real shot at a better than quality start. What I hope for any pitcher is

7 IP = 15.75
7 K = 14 Pts
6 base runners (or less) = -3.6
3 Runs (or less) = -6

Total = 20.15 DK points

I’d see anything better as a bonus, it’s like being a fan or manager, just avoid the crooked numbers, If Giancarlo Stanton hits a HR don’t walk the guy in front of him, the OBP of a walk is 1.000, while league average for Batting average of balls in play is usually around .300.

HITTERS

Buster Posey (SF) $4,500

Up against a lefty making his Red Sox debut and familiar with the pitcher going 6 for 13 with 2 HR.

Hanley Ramirez (BOS) $3,900

Averaging 8.32 points per game may not seem attractive, but Hanley has experience against Cain, so far this July he is 11/33 with 6 Doubles.

Aaron Hill (BOS) $3,800

Hill has pretty decent numbers against Matt Cain, who is coming off of the DL, So will probably get the start ahead of Travis Shaw. Hill will more than likely have chances with runners on base or if he gets on the probability of him scoring will be much higher than they were in Milwaukee.

Josh Donaldson (TOR) $5,500

Lead all hitters in points per game in the 1st half, is 2-2 lifetime with a walk against Corbin.

Carlos Correa (HOU) $4,900

2 for 3 with a HR career against the A’s scheduled starting pitcher. Averaging 8.71 points per game the probability of a double digit total is good.

Mookie Betts (BOS) $5,300

While scoreless last night, Mookie averages double digits per game. He can hit, run & HR leading off for a power house.

Nelson Cruz (SEA) $3,500

Great value for tonight’s game as he has homered off of Miguel Gonzalez before and at the all-star break. He is ranked 9th of all qualified hitters for Home Runs per plate appearance.

Jason Heyward (CHC) $3,400

7 for 20 life-time against the Mets starter Bartolo Colon, means tonight he should do better than his average numbers.

 

Fullscreen capture 20072016 075756

Average points per game in the 1st half of 2016.

 

Michael Pineda (NYY) – 15.56

Jeremy Hellickson (PHI) – 15.4

Buster Posey (SF) – 8.4

Hanley Ramirez (BOS) – 8.32

Aaron Hill (BOS) – 6.38

Josh Donaldson (TOR) – 11.15

Carlos Correa (HOU) – 8.71

Mookie Betts (BOS) – 10.76

Nelson Cruz (SEA) – 9.16

Jason Heyward (CHC) – 6.82

Total = 100.66

 

With many of this team having upside, I’d be hoping for a 25% increase in the average numbers, which would bring in 125.8 points.
That total should place you in the points, and 6 of the 8 hitters in this team have a real shot of going long ball. After watching some of his starts Pineda seems to have a tell of when he is done. Typically he will walk a batter & a few minutes later be in real trouble I’m hoping this comes late in 6th and that the bench recognise that.


Machine Picks

Contests Played: 1
Total Stake: $1.00
Paid places: 0
Won: $0

So last night I was caught in the familiar spot many people like me are trapped in when trying to rely solely on DFS lineup optimizing software. The St. Louis game featured the top suggested pitcher and an Out Fielder from the game. I did check the weather and saw a 30% (ish) chance of rain listed on a weather site. In California (where I live) a 30% chance of rain is like 0% so maybe St. Louis is much different. Either way I should have checked the radar, since that is one of the purest way to see potential rain fall in an area.

Either way, I’m not going to get bummed about $1 and a rain-out it happens. Tonight I will optimize my lineup closer to gametime as I did set my lineup too early with respects to checking the weather.

Initially this is the optimal lineup I’m getting on FanDuel – which is the site I’m going to play on as I’m getting my feet wet in MLB daily fantasy. Again tonight I’m going to use RotoGrinders optimizer tool which is free.

P Michael Pineda
C Brian McCann
1B David Ortiz
2B Dustin Pedroia
3B Maikel Franco
SS Xander Boaerts
OF Mike Trout
OF Jackie Bradley
OF Matt Kemp


THANK YOU EVERYONE for checking in. The purpose of these blogs is to show you the process of daily fantasy grinding – and how it can be different for different kinds of fans. It’s also a cool way for friends to connect. DFS is not all about making money and I’m excited for the football season to be on the way. Thanks again.

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