What do I love more than college football DFS????? That’s right … NBA DFS!! I actually wager far more money on NBA DFS than CFB because there are simply too many variables to college football and football in general to predict. The NBA can become a reliable source of income because there’s only a handful of players on each team getting all the stats and exploiting that knowledge can lead to big profits.
First some NBA basketball DFS surface level game theory since some of you might be new to NBA DFS or crossing over from CFB/NFL ect. I’ll expand on these as the season rolls along as I see fit. First thing is – don’t over wager tonight. Just because it’s the first night of NBA, doesn’t mean we need to step outside our bankroll comfort zone. I actually wager more on NBA DFS as the season rolls along, typically from December – All Star break can be very predictable. This early in the season, we have guys playing hard because it’s opening night, roles are being established, games are on national TV, arenas are packed, not many guys are hurt … ect. I suggest just getting your feet wet tonight and wager an amount you’re comfortable with so you can sweat the games. If you don’t do well, there’s plenty of time to adjust with a full slate of games on Wednesday. The worst thing to do would be to blow your bankroll tonight & be dejected AND broke on Wednesday.
Game selection is key (and site selection). Because the NBA runs virtually every night – I tend to play a high number of head-2-head contests. You’re not going to get rich quick this way, but the NBA is a slow long grind – and chopping out winners week after week can really add up. Not to mention, play that much volume and you get reward points, entries into tournaments … ect and you can hit a big score that way. Make sure you are posting your own head-2-heads and not selecting from the lobby like a fish would. On Fanduel I like to create only a few at a time because someone can enter all your contests at once. On Draftkings you should set the repeat player limit to 1 and create as many as your bankroll allows. On Yahoo, for the MLB/NFL I usually create H2H matches throughout the day to try and get a mix of opponents. Keep track of your W-L rate as you need to be greater than 55% to be a winning player.
Unless I get a free entry or enter with reward points, I tend to avoid large field GPP’s on full slate days like Wednesday’s & Fridays’ because you honestly need to get lucky to even cash. If you want to gamble, go to Las Vegas … it’s more fun than sitting in front of a computer sweating grown men running around on a court throwing a ball into a basket. If you want to make money … avoid GPP’s for the most part and focus on playing weaker opponents head-2-head. However, on Tues/Thurs there’s not going to be much variation in the lineups so you don’t need to get as wacky/lucky with your picks. On short slate days (like today) I like to let the amateurs select the risky plays and I pick the chalk … as the averages should work out that the quality players out-produce in the long run. Tonight, being the first game of the season won’t play out like a normal NBA night would – but this is a strategy that has worked for me in the past and I expect it will as the season rolls along.
Okay, onto the picks. Normally during the season if you’ve followed my picks in the past I don’t write too much … I just give out some names & a blurb. This season will be similar. I’m going to point out some sleeper/value picks that I think are good to build your lineups around. Also, new this year, I’ll give out my cash game/H2H core player(s) that I will be targeting. Essentially you can mix/match my picks this year to create a full lineup.
Sleeper NBA DFS Picks For 10/27
Cleveland @ Chicago (-3) 198
Detroit @ Atlanta (-6.5) 197.5
New Orleans @ Golden State (-9.5) 214.5
New this year — I will be playing on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. I will only post the salaries from sites I think he’s worth rostering. For example, Stanley Johnson is playable on Yahoo & Fanduel but at $4,700 on draftkings – I’ll pass.
G- Nate Robinson – New Orleans
$10 Yahoo (SG)
Looks like Holiday is on some kind of a minuets limit. Robinson will likely be on his best behavior tonight, but if he gets it rolling, he’ll hog the ball a bit. I think there’s way less blowout risk in this game than people might think, but if it does get ugly – I think that might help Robinson a bit.
G- Jodie Meeks – Pistons
More of a tournament play on DK I think because he’s really just a scorer. KCP is expected to start, but he’s been injured. The coach indicated Meeks role off the bench will be to score … and that can be a valuable role since you’re going against 2nd team defenses.
G- Tony Snell – Bulls
I filled out a lineup I liked with Snell in as a min priced player on Yahoo. I think he has a good shot at getting you about 12 fantasy points.
F- Dante Cunningham – New Orleans
I think he has an above average chance to get you 15 fantasy points which would be good value on DK.
F- Nikola Mirotic – Bulls
More of a value pick than a sleeper obv. However, at $5,500 I don’t think you can leave him out of your cash lineups on FD.
F- Stanley Johnson – Detroit
I hate rookies the first night of the season. Imagine how nervous he must be, even right now. But the coach seemed to indicate he’ll get playing time, and I think he has a chance to deliver value on Yahoo and FD.
Cash Game Strategy For 10/27
I think I’ll fade LeBron with all his injury stuff.
Build around: Anthony Davis or Stephen Curry
Get Exposure To: Andre Drummond, Klay Thompson, Reggie Jackson, Ryan Anderson, Pau Gasol
Thanks for checking out my opening night picks. I normally post picks for all the long slate games – but sometimes skip the Tues/Thurs nights. However, this season I might post more Tues/Thurs selections since I might be playing that slate more often than I have in the past.