NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball – Sleepers + Cash Game Picks 11/3

NBA Daily fantasy basketball cash game and sleeper/value picks for Tuesday November 3rd 2015. It’s an interesting night because Anthony Davis is far more expensive than any other player. I think the play in cash games when that is the case is to pay up … and let your opponents take the risk of Davis not meeting projections against an Orlando team that can give up lots of points. As a side note, I like the Orlando guards despite what the metrics might say because everyone has been lighting it up against the NO guards.

Here is the target score I’m shooting for on each NBA DFS site. The target score is essentially determined by some statistical analysis of projections, averages and player salaries. What I use the number for is when constructing a lineup – I’m projecting a certain point-per-dollar and if I can create a lineup where my projection is greater than the target score … I know its a viable lineup. If your players have to play out of their minds to reach this target score (essentially a statistical anomaly) – throw the lineup out and start over.

Yahoo Target Score: 255
Fanduel Target Score: 286
Draftkings Target Score: 253

Here are the players I’m building my cash game lineups around on each site. It’s not often that it’s the same core on all sites, but tonight expect a ton of lineup overlap no matter where you play since every single NBA article published today will mention the same 2 players.

Draftkings: Anthony Davis, Drummond,
Fanduel: Anthony Davis, Drummond, Lowry
Yahoo: Anthony Davis, Drummond, Rondo

Here are the guys I think could fairly comfortably meet a point-per-dollar value which is very important in cash games. Note; I often update these throughout the day as injury notes come across the wire.

G – Will Barton
$10 Yahoo
$4,000 Draftkings

G – Emmanuel Mudiay
$5,400 Fanduel

G – Lou Williams
$4,800 Fanduel

G – Darren Collison
$15 Yahoo
$4,700 Draftkings

G – Rajon Rondo
$21 Yahoo

F – Myles Turner
$3,500 Fanduel

C – Kosta Koufos
$3,800 Fanduel
$3,700 Draftkings
$13 Yahoo

C – Willie Cauley-Stein
$4,000 Draftkings


 

11/2 Recap:

I had more luck on Fanduel than Yahoo last night. Didn’t play on Dk mainly because I ran out of time.
Yahoo: 7-17 cash games. My lineup was decent, 228.9 points … missing my target score by 10. Kevin Love was the only real disappointment in my lineup. Just wasn’t my night.

On Fanduel – things went much better. I went 31-3 in a mix of H2H and 50/50’s. I was 0-4 in tournaments, but I was only 3 points from cashing. I noticed that FD now has match limits for games under $10 (which is almost all I play outside the select tournament with some overlay). I decided to sign up for all my games real late thinking the heavy hitters would have already maxed out their action for the night. Not sure if that helped, but I’ll probably try that again if I’m sitting at home close to the 4pm tip-off.

Overall: 38 – 20 in cash games (65%)

Here’s my Fanduel lineup. Yesterday I said in my blog post I was building around Lillard, Giannis and Markieff on Fanduel. All were at or above expectations. Also if you go look at usage stat, Kawhi Leonard is really high for a guy only $8,000, so I consider him a good play until salary catches up. Chris Paul the obvious major disappointment. If he had hit value – I would have cashed in 4 tournaments. Kevin Love too was under projection and was a let down on the night. Overall though, very happy with how the night went.

Fanduel NBA Lineup 11-2

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