Tonight we have the $1m GPP tournament on Fanduel … with entries at $25 I decided to fire 4 lineups tonight + I won a seat last night so I actually get to roll with 5 lineups, which should allow me to get exposure to all the players I’m looking to target tonight. If it looks like there will be significant overlay in the contest I’ll likely buy a few more lineups closer towards tip-off. If you’re on the fence about spending $25 for 1 tournament, build a lineup but wait closer to lock to decide if there’s overlay or not.
Target Scores – I’ve been doing a pretty good job at reaching the target score with ease recently, which puts me in position to make a run in GPPs. If you’ve been struggling reaching target scores – I would devote more time to building your lineps since it’s getting easier to project NBA players performance at this point in the season. If you’ve been doing well/reaching target scores with a range of lineups – starting playing more and trying to build even more diverse lineups around the core of players you are targeting.
Yahoo: 260 (higher than normal)
Here are my cash game targets for the night: I think there’s a lack of value (at the moment) so building a balanced lineup will likely be a good strategy tonight in cash. Also, most of the top players have salaries that are pretty accurate at this part of the season, so target players that tend to fill the stat sheet in various ways when looking for mid-range guys in cash games. Typically I like to go value at F/C since those players tend to get rebounds/blocks which can make up for a cold shooting night.
Draftkings: Horford, Griffin, Aldrige
Fanduel: Horford, Batum, DeRozan, Griffin
There’s not a ton of value tonight at the moment. Late injuries will really give the advantage to those that can pivot very late before tipoff. There’s likely some traps since prices have been rising on some of the value plays that have been working – expect lots of grinders to ‘stick with what works’ without realizing they are now over-paying for the same production.
G – Isaiah Cannan
G – Patrick Beverley
G – Jerryd Bayless
G – OJ Mayo
F – Thabo Sefolosha (health check required)
C – Nikola Jokic
Strategy Note: Last night I had lots of exposure to Eric Bledsoe because there was a lack of SG. If you watch Suns games, or simply study the game logs – you’ll find that rarely do Knight AND Bledsoe go off in the same game …. like 40+ fantasy points each. It’s almost always one or the other. Being able to predict which one goes off is like flipping coins …. so just make sure you’re not stacking these two in lineups. One GPP lineup you stack them on a short slate … sure, I get it … but the average player coming to this website looking for advice doesn’t need to be stacking Bledsoe/Knight because I think you’re capping your upside with the play. The better thing to do is play Bledsoe in some lineups and play Knight in some lineups. Last night I did this and Knight’s superior play helped mitigate Bledsoe’s average night. There are other combo’s like this in the NBA and it’s something you want to think about when building lineups.
12/1 Recap: Well last night I didn’t have Gasol on Fanduel and basically min-cashed because of it. On Draftkings – I didn’t have quite enough exposure to Alex Len, and ended up almost breaking even on that site. I did bink a $25 seat for tonight for $2 so honestly I was really happy how last night went because of that. When I was looking at the winning lineups from last night on FanDuel – they were all fading LeBron/AD … which I didn’t do enough of considering I have over 10 entries. Next time on a short/medium sized slate – I’m going to diversify my lineups a bit more since I was close to having optimal lineups when I faded the two stars.
Here are my GPP Results from last night. 12 entries on Fanduel were in the $300k, 1 was a $2 satellite for the $25 $1m tonight … so while I only netted $3 in winnings, I did win an extra bullet in tonight’s big GPP. On Draftkings, I had LeBron in all 6 lineups so my upside was capped when he didn’t reach 50 fantasy points.
This was one of my best lineup of the night. Honestly if I swap Lopez for Gasol, I’m sitting pretty, but I rolled with Lopez/LeBron in all my lineups. Probably a mistake – but I thought on the short slate I could concentrate on a few players. Plus I had very little exposure to LeBron/Lopez in my Fanduel lineups. As a side note – I think you can treat Nicholson a little like some bench forwards on Minnesota. Kevin Garnett/Channing Frye are similar in that they are starting, but typically aren’t playing big minuets down the stretch of games. Nicholson seems to have the role (for now) of being 1st off the bench for Frye, which is a valuable role as long as he sits below $4,000 salary.
Overall not a bad night. I’m going to balance my play with some more cash games after tonight. However – as long as my win rate in GPPs is where it is, I have to keep entering more & more of them.
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