Really light slate of NBA games. I’m going to focus on building some tournament lineups since cash games is more about lineup combinations rather than lineup building in these short slates.
Here are the target scores. Because there’s not a ton of major 40+ point superstar players on a night like this – the target scores are fairly low. Some strategies are certainly building a balance lineup – but I could also see trying to build lineups around the 3 or 4 players capable of a 40+ fantasy point night tonight as well.
Here are the cash game targets. Again – unless you are skilled/winning player, I’d likely avoid cash games outside a dollar game or two. The reason being is if you are off by just 1 player on these short slates … you can lose 100% of your lineups. If you are a skilled player – short slates like these often cater to skillfully punting one spot to allow you to pay up for production at every other spot.
Fanduel: Deng, Drummond, Barton
Yahoo: Deng, Drummond
Here are some value picks. Not a ton right now, we’ll see if it cracks open like yesterday did:
G – Gerald Green
F – Jeff Green
F – Patrick Patterson
12/21 Recap: I thought early in the day yesterday that it would be a big NBA day … but as the day wore on, the shear number of value plays just made it difficult to land on one lineup .. you really needed dozens of lineups … and therefore hours of time. With that, I cut back on NBA because the less time you spend on building lineups, the worse you are going to do. My results from last night reflect that.
Here is my tournament lineup shot:
LOTS of value hit last night, I mean there was value across the board in Portland, Boston and other places. My strategy was to fade the ‘sexy’ value and stick with guys I knew wouldn’t lay a huge dud AND likely be under-owned because everyone would be focused on the “new” value plays. Henderson & Plumlee fit the bill as guys who can put up numbers with Lillard/McCollum playing … so I figured with them out, Hendo and Plumlee could have huge games.
Turns out – everyone did about what I needed them to do – BUT the value plays hit and I was well short of the cash line (I think it was around 270ish required to cash). Jordan was a guy that I would have pivoted around because I also like Lopez & Gortat last night … and Gortat was in pretty much every winning lineup I saw. So I had a losing lineup – what did I learn????
First thing – when it becomes apparent that there’s going to be lots of value due to several starters being ruled out …. you probably want to jump on that value or fade the slate in general. Draftkings is a site that caters to the value pick in the NBA anyway because there’s more slots to play guys. On Fanduel … it’s a bit different because you only have one or 2 places MAX to play a guy. I suggest if you’re struggling a bit playing NBA DFS on Draftkings to try a week on Fanduel because the lineup building process is quite a bit different. Personally, I like switching back & forth between the sites depending on the salaries … plus Fanduel does get a bit monotonous because you end up playing a lot of the same players on a nightly basis.
Tonight, I plan on firing off a lineup or two into some GPPs, but I’ve been studying college football all season – and now is the best time to play because there’s overlay ++ competition that doesn’t really know much about the players. A similar thing happens in the NBA towards the end of NBA season when you have MLB DFS overlap … so it’s key that you keep your confidence & bankroll as high as possible heading into the new year. Remember, if you’re struggling with NBA DFS – cut back to $1 games/GPPs, try to spend more time building lineups, look at winning lineups in contests you play, switch DFS sites, and try to follow the games/players a bit closer. Remember, you can look at DFS like a learning process. If it costs you $100 – $200 to learn how to play NBA DFS – that’s a sum you can win in one night once you figure out how to play. Keep grinding!