Got a smaller size NBA slate for DFS purposes tonight, but you still should be able to get some nice lineup diversity no matter what game format you are playing in. Tonight, I think I’ll focus primarily on cash games and throw off a few entries in some tournaments.
Today I have target NBA daily fantasy scores, some cash game plays, some value picks – and finally some cash game strategy just in case you are struggling filling out lineups for cash, I go over that since I’ve been covering more tournaments lately. This is all for today (Tuesday) December 8, 2015
Here are the target scores. Based on projections you come up with (or agree with) you should be reaching these scores.
Here are some cash game guys. Remember – I don’t guarantee these guys will go off – however often their production is somewhat secondary to who they open you up to rostering (or not rostering) in cash games.
Draftkings: Elfrid Payton, Thad Young
Fanduel: Klay Thompson, Elfird Payton, Rodney Stuckey
Yahoo: Elfrid Payton, Vucevic
Here are some value picks. This should get larger as the night grows closer.
G – Patrick Beverley
G – Shane Larkin
G – Rodney Stuckey
F – Trevor Booker
C – Steven Adams
12/7 Recap: Yesterday I found myself on the golf course and the play was a little slower than normal. That meant I wasn’t going to play tournaments – since entering a tournament lineup on a phone is pretty much turning a skill game into gambling. Instead I decided to focus on a couple of $5 50/50 contests on Fanduel since they are pretty easy to win if you have the right idea.
First thing I did was pull up FantasyLabs. You guys have probably heard me talk about them before – I’ll say it again, I pay the $60/mo with ease because it saves me time and when I’m in a crunch (like filling out a lineup between shots on the golf course) then you need tools like this. I pulled up my custom FanDuel Cash Game model and hit generate. It spit out a lineup that is very close to the one below, except it had Anthony Davis & a few other low-er end players because Anthony Davis was $10k. If I played on Yahoo last night, I though he might be worth it because you can play lots of Forwards on that site – on Fanduel AD is still off my radar in cash games and I’ll explain why in a minuet. Anyway, just want to say it again – you should try fantasy labs here and see if you like it. Honestly, it takes about a month or so to get used to if you were generating similar models on your own … but once you get it dialed in, it can really help you decision making process. Remember, I get contacted several times a day to promote products to you guys – I only promote the ones I actually use myself.
Okay Back to the lineup – so I didn’t like Anthony Davis in cash on Fanduel, but I LOVED Aldridge with Kawahi ruled out against the 76ers. I was pretty sure he wasn’t going to play the 4th quarter (he didn’t) but still thought his FLOOR was about 28 – 30. He came through. Notice what I like to do in cash games. I typically like to find value at the guard position and pay up for PF/SF/C production and here’s why — PG’s have the ball in their hand a lot, so it’s easier to find value at a position where the guy touches the ball. Backup PF/SF/C might not get plays run for them – and might have nights where they don’t touch the ball much. That’s why I like guys like Blake Griffin (when Chris Paul is out) and Draymond Green even more because they bring the ball up the court – which is rare at the PF position. Julius Randle is another player that should develop into this type of role once Kobe retires, as a side note. In cash games we are trying to limit our downside – one way of doing that is by paying up for PF/SF/C who are centerpieces of what teams do offensively …. and play value guards who are going to handle the ball as much (or more) than the $10,000 PGs.
A couple other side notes. Giannis isn’t normally a cash game guy – however against teams who play an open court style like Portland, Phoenix, Golden State … ect will have me lean more toward playing him in cash because I think that’s his strength. Everyone else did what they were supposed to do and as you can see it’s pretty easy money. Also – saw lots of FanDuel cash game lineups with Anthony Davis. Several people in all my $5 50/50’s had the same lineup – so my guess is people were using lineups that they were getting generated from things like FantasyLabs and just inserting them blindly. Remember – projection tools/lineup generators are only analyzing the data. Part of DFS is actually creating the right lineup for the game type you’re playing. While the data/lineup generators might have told you to play Anthony Davis – a computer probably won’t know he’s not viable on Fanduel cash games. Here’s why:
I know I (kind-of) suggested he could be OK for cash on Yahoo – only because you can roster him at PF/F/UTL, plus there’s lots of $10 plays that if you know what you’re doing can come through. That’s different than Fanduel, where you’re only given 1 spot to roster AD. Blowing $10k+ on a player that doesn’t touch the ball every play isn’t good cash game strategy (especially with ball-hog Tyreke back). I know I said we pay up for PF/C production, but there’s a balance we need to take in cash games. That’s why I felt Blake Griffin was the play across the board because even though he only gave you/me 35.7 fanduel points (in OT) – he saved us money we used elsewhere ++ anytime Chris Paul is out – he serves as the PG on many possessions.
Not saying you can’t win cash games with Anthony Davis in your lineups – and if he blows up for 70 points last night, my points are moot, however you’ve got to remember NBA daily fantasy is a long season. You need to put yourself in the best position to win each night. In Fanduel NBA contests, you’ve got to be selective on who you pay up for at PF/SF in cash games. PF/SF’s like Blake, Draymond Green, Kawhi, Milsaps, Gordon Hayward/Favors, Aldridge (in spots this season) are the one’s that are constantly in my cash game lineups because the offense flows through them. For centers, I often like to go with the ‘second-tier’ as well, so usually Monroe, Horford, Vucevic (in spots), Brook Lopez, Gortat. That’s why each one is so consistent (to a degree) when you look at the game logs. Save Anthony Davis, Drummond, Cousins for your tournament lineups on slates larger than say … 5 games. Anything smaller & their ownership rates go up even higher, so owning them in cash isn’t a terrible idea if you can pick value plays well.
Last thing in cash games – don’t try out sexy new toys. There were some injuries/surprise starters last night. Save playing those guys in your tournament lineups. Notice I went Joseph, Mayo, Crowder as my ‘value’ guys. That’s because I’ve watched these guys games over the last 3 – 5 days and felt their role is established. Just because a guy draws a start doesn’t mean he’s a cash game value pick. Stick with what’s been working until their price goes up too much. If you like playing the 1% owned just named starter value pick – enter a tournament.
Lastly, Roles in the NBA are fluid for over 90% of the league. Staying on top of that requires a lot of work. If you’re willing to put it in, profits in NBA DFS can come with ease. If you just want to push a button & put in an optimal lineup, you should probably wait for MLB DFS because that strategy works better in a sport like baseball.