Small slate of NBA action tonight – but those tend to be the really fun nights for me. You are either going to lose quite a bit of money, or win a large percentage of your action tonight … so you probably don’t need to go wild entering a bunch of contests. However, it’s a fun night for tournaments because most of the starters are going to have similar ownership levels. Your job tonight is to dial in the right combinations of players — and go after that ‘sleeper’ or bench guy no one else is really targeting. Likely that will come closer to the 4pm tip-off … so no need to really rack your brain trying to come up with one yet.
Here are the target scores we are shooting for: Obv on a short slate they are quite a bit lower than normal.
Here are some cash game targets. Cash games are difficult on a night like this – pay close attention to how you think the games will play out/matchups ect.
Draftkings: Lebron, Kemba Walker
Fanduel: Lou Williams, Kemba Walker
Yahoo: Lou Williams, Kemba Walker
Here are some value guys. I’ve tried to include more than normal because you’ll need to dig a little deeper than larger slate nights. Just be selective.
G – Cory Joseph
G – Patrick Beverley
G – Terrence Ross
G – Jeremy Lin
F – Patrick Patterson
C – Bismack Biyombo
C – Frank Kaminsky
C – Cody Zeller
12/16 Recap: Last night I lost about $4 playing … however it was a better night than the previous two where I broke even … because I actually had 2 lineups that were much closer to being optimal. Last night I saw lots of grinders on discussion boards trying to talk people out of playing guys from Phoenix/GS and OKC/Portland because of ‘blowout risk’. Absolutely blowout risk is something to be aware of in all game formats. However, it’s sometimes overblown a bit because NBA players are capable of huge nights even in blowouts. Look at Klay Thompson and Draymond Green – both had HUGE nights in a “blowout” so you don’t need to avoid players from the matchup, just get lucky on the 1 or 2 guys that do end up with all the stats. Turns out, winning lineups had Klay Thompson AND Draymond Green last night … so in tournaments DON’T BE SCARED OF BLOWOUTS IN THE NBA. Remember, the Vegas line is NOT A PREDICTION, it’s a number that will attract 50% bets on either side. Also remember, it’s not like no-one gets fantasy points in a blowout, as Draymond & Thompson proved.
Turns out – I had the wrong two players from the ‘blowout risk’ games in my best lineups, but I had about equal exposure to Thompson & Green as well … just didn’t have the other lineup to support it. Westbrook was a mistake to have in more than one lineup – I’ll try my best not to make that mistake again. They play tonight in Cleveland – so a blowout was certainly going to effect them more than Golden State – who’s staying in Oakland for a while. Ultimately though – I actually built these lineups from Center up – like I often do when there’s a plethora of Point Guards to choose from like last night. I ended up with $20k to spend, so I inserted the two best guys. Not really a good strategy …. and normally when I have a bit more time to build lineups – I would have tried to get more PG combos than I did. The winning PG combos I saw was Jarrett Jack/Rubio or Kemba/Rubio … not sure I would have ended up on those players anyway, but I probably could have finished even higher than I did with this lineup for sure.
Gortat, Lopez or Dieng were my centers last night. Henson was inserted because I thought he’d start again. Jason Kidd didn’t even start Giannis, so I lucked out Henson ended up where he was. Carmelo was a player in a ton of winning lineups. Melo was a good play because Kristaps had been struggling … and it seems to correlate with Melo getting more stats.
So I cashed with 2 players from the games everyone was trying to think of an excuse to avoid. Did those two players ultimately hold me back from winning more money with this lineup?? …. kind of. However, leaving $1,000+++ on the table to move down to Rubio, Kemba, Wall or others would have been difficult. Ultimately the point is – I think there was merit in fading Oklahoma last night … and in hindsight I probably should have. However, fading the Warriors game will likely keep you out of 1st place on lots of NBA DFS nights this season. I’m trying to win – not take the safe route the forum grinders are purposing. As last night showed – you don’t want to stack GSW (or other teams) in a potential blowout – but you don’t want to fade them 100% either. The exception might be later in the season, or against REALLY bad teams like the 76ers or LA Lakers … the Suns are a quality group with a good coach … plus they are capable of trimming a lead quickly – unlike some teams without the offensive firepower.
Another thing is Fanduel sent me some stats in my inbox yesterday – so check your e-mail too. Here are some of the results: pretty interesting. 273 Average for mainly tournament lineups is acceptable on Fanduel, but I’ve been higher in the past – so I’ll look to get more upside lineups going forward.