WPI’s Daily Fantasy Football QB Strategy & Picks – Week 4

Here are my week 4 daily NFL fantasy football QB picks for the week. I’ve gambled and put them in order of my preference this week. There are some HOT matchups … especially in the late games this week. If you play in leagues that only have late games – you have lots of choices compared to most weeks.

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1 – Peyton Manning
The Eagles have given up the 3rd most yards to QB’s this year. They try to run a million plays meaning the other team gets more chances too. I expect MANY grinders to have Peyton in their lineups this week, so the edge of playing him will be small. If you don’t have him in the game, you should probably try and hedge by playing either Michael Vick or one of Manning’s WR’s who should benefit in this matchup.

2 – Tony Romo
The Chargers have given up the MOST yards to QB’s this season through 3 weeks. That includes 6 TD’s with only 1 INT. If you don’t want to have Peyton Manning in your lineup this week … Tony Romo might be your 2nd best option, probably at a discounted price tag. Just expect other grinders to assume the same thing, so you won’t be the only one with Romo in your lineup.

3 – Tom Brady
Found a guy that could catch the ball last week and plays the Falcons who have given up the 7th most yards to QB and 7 total TD’s through 3 weeks of play. Tom Tom GPS is a decent play every week and this matchup might keep him throwing all day long.

4 – Matthew Stafford
If Stafford is a mid-priced option in your league … he’s solid and always seems to get a TD or two each week. The Bears have a pretty solid defense, but teams have moved the ball on them at times, especially through the air. With Reggie Bush and Joique Bell both providing a good dump-off options, Stafford should be pretty solid this week at home. The Bears have given up the 8th most yards to QB’s this season, but have 5 INT’s. Another red flag is that his #2 WR Nate Burleson went down in a car accident, so the double teams on Calvin Johnson will be nearly 100% of plays until someone else steps up.

5 – Michael Vick
The Bronco’s are one of the worst passing defense teams in the league. Those games come without their best DB, who didn’t play Monday night against the Raiders. If Champ doesn’t play again, Vick should be a quality option if you don’t go with Peyton Manning. Hold your breath though … Vick will get hurt soon.

6 – Jay Cutler
He’s a free agent at the end of the year … I fully expect Cutler to be on his best behavior this year, and he will be doing everything he can to make his numbers look good + have the Bears win. Will probably be a mid-priced option in most leagues and is not a bad play if you don’t want to go with a top-tier QB. The Lions have only given up 2 TD’s this season to QB’s.

7 – Philip Rivers
The Cowboys have given up the 10th most yards to QB’s including 7 TD’s this season. They did hold Sam Bradford in check (he did throw over 40 times). I expect this game to be a shootout of sorts which will benefit Rivers. The Cowboys have training camp in Southern California, so there will be tons of Cowboys fans at this game but I don’t expect that to have a huge impact on the game.

8 – Drew Brees
The Dolphins have given up the 12th most yards to QB’s but only 4 TD’s with 5 INT’s. At home and on Monday Night, I expect Brees to have a solid game but there are other options you can go with this week at a better price.

9 – Matt Ryan
The Patriots have only allowed 2 TD’s with 4 INT’s through the first 3 weeks, but they haven’t played an elite QB like Matt Ryan. I like several other QB’s over Matt Ryan this week, but he will probably won’t be started in that many leagues. He’s worth the risk if you think it will be a shootout.

10 – Andrew Luck
The Jaguars have only give up about 200 passing yards per game, but they have yielded 7 touchdowns. You’re hope is Luck throws TD’s instead of handing it off much like last week. I think the Colts will run the ball a lot this week, limiting Luck’s value.

11- QB – Colin Kaepernick
Hasn’t played well the last 2 weeks and is a mid-priced option this week. Romo had a good week against the Rams defense last week, but the 49ers lack of weapons at WR is hurting Kaepernick’s numbers. I may have him in one lineup this week in 2 QB leagues, but if you only can pick 1 QB, you should look elsewhere this week.

12- QB – Andy Dalton
Had an OK week (2 TDs but 2 turnovers) last week in a wild game against the Packers. Cleveland’s only allowed 2 passing TD’s all year.

13 – Robert Griffin III
Before MNF against the all-mighty Broncos, the Raiders were #1 in the league in least amount of passing yards per game. It wasn’t like teams were running all over them either – they are stingy on that end too.

14 – Sam Bradford
Got burned last week when I had him in against the Cowboys … he actually threw 40+ passes …. so the opportunities were there, but he only threw 1 TD. The 49ers will be without leading pass-rusher Aldon Smith, and the status of MLB Patrick Willis is one you’ll want to check on. I don’t plan on having Bradford in any of my lineups, but the 49ers D is looking less scary this week.

15 – Terrelle Pryor – Got Krunked Monday Huge Risk
The Redskins are one of the NFL’s worst passing defense teams. Problem is the run D is pretty bad too which might mean Pryor doesn’t have to throw too much in this game. He’s usually very cheap option at QB … and if you feel like having Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson in your lineup … going with Pryor this week on the cheap isn’t the worst option.

16 – Ryan Tannehill
The Saints have a solid pass defense, one of the best in the league through 3 weeks. I wouldn’t have Ryan in my lineup this week.

17 – Brian Hoyer
Guys got lucky last week who had him in … starting third string QB’s rarely works out in the NFL and is a sure way to delete your bankroll if you do it every week. I think you’re stupid if you have him in this week but we’ll see.

 

Week 4 Picks On One Page Here

Week 4 Running Back Picks Here

 

About WPI – AKA “WhitePhilIvey” is an avid fantasy basketball, football and baseball junkie. Each week, he will provide insight to help you make picks, usually based on the Las Vegas betting lines that he stands in all too often.

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