WPI’s Daily Fantasy NFL Football Strategy & Picks – Week 5

THURSDAY GAME

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
Vegas O/U = 40.5
Line = Browns -3.5

QB – Brian Hoyer
Not a horrible last 2 weeks for this guy. He’s turning Jordan Cameron into a STUD TE play. The Bills have given up the 10th most yards to QB’s this year – with 8 TD’s and 8 INT’s – Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Tom Brady and Geno Smith are responsible for those stats. I’m ranking Hoyer again near the bottom of the QB’s this week, but only because there are still more options you can go with.
RB – C.J. Spiller
ZERO TD’s this year, along with sub-par play in all but 1 game means CJ’s cheaper than he was during the beginning of the year … which was mostly hype. The Browns are one of the better run-stopping teams in the league … but have given up 5 TD’s this year, which is near the top of the range. I’d stay away from Spiller – as he probably is still too expensive & too risky given his track history this year.
WR – Josh Gordon
Had 4 catches for 71 yards (no TDs) last week against a Bengals secondary which featured 2 starters that were out … so those numbers aren’t that impressive. The Bills have given up some yardage to QB’s this year – and Gordon is still a somewhat mid-priced WR, and provides good upside at that price given that this will be only his 3rd game this year.
WR – Robert Woods – Stevie Johnson
If you want Stevie Johnson, I consider them both a risky play. Woods might have more upside given he’s still pretty cheap in most leagues and has OK numbers for a rookie. The Browns defense is pretty solid – and kept A.J. Green and the Bengals TD-less last week.
TE – Jordan Cameron
Was a must play last week on some sites that still had him priced at a mid-level option. He can probably get busy again this week … problem is you’re paying a top-end price for him now.

 

SUNDAY Morning Games

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Vegas O/U = 43.5
Line = Miami -3

RB – Ray Rice
Miami actually has a decent run defense. Teams are only averaging about 98 yards per game against them, with only 2 TDs. Rice’s injury status is clearer, but coaches will probably still hold him back a bit. I’d steer clear unless he just fits in your budget.
RB – Lamar Miller
Got enough touches last week for you to think about him, but the Ravens have given up only 1 rushing TD this year.
WR – Torrey Smith
The Dolphins have given up the 8th most yards along with 8 TD’s through 4 weeks to WR’s. Smith is an mid-to-upper priced WR that is consistent enough that you’re not gambling with him … and this matchup for him is better than most.
TE – Charles Clay
If you’ve blown all your money elsewhere, I don’t like Clay’s matchup this week, but keep an eye on him. The Dolphins have this guy in at full-back too. If he has a soft matchup and is cheap … it’s not bad to punt the TE position (with an upside guy) if you can afford the top end.

 

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers RED HOT MATCHUP
Vegas O/U = 53.5
Line = Packers -7

QB – Aaron Rodgers
The Lions have given up the 11th most yards to QB’s this year with only 4 TDs. They really aren’t a bad defensive team, considering teams are throwing on them most of the game since their offense can keep up. ARod is a solid play, but he may not be across all your lineups this week given this matchup has the potential to hold him down.
QB – Matthew Stafford
Green Bay has yielded 8 TD’s and only 2 INTs this year through 3 games. This is a pretty solid matchup for Stafford who always seems to get you 2 TDs (or so) each game. He’s a solid play.
RB – Reggie Bush
BEASTED last week. Green Bay has given up about 100 yards per game to backs, with 3 TDs. Giovani Bernard looked like the rookie of the year 2 weeks ago against them. If your comfortable with Joique Bell getting some of the action – Reggie is looking like his paying … errr … I mean playing days at USC.
RB – Johnathan Franklin, Eddie Lacy,
Both appear they will play this week, while Starks is ruled out. The Lions are a somewhat buttery matchup for the Packers – they have given up 5 TDs through 4 weeks and over 400 yards to RBs. Franklin was a BEAST in the Bengals game, if you’re going to risk it at RB this week – he has some upside on a weaker run D.
WR – Calvin Johnson
Stud. Should get action in this one. He’s expensive though, so you better find a sleeper or two.
WR – Randall Cobb
For the price, I think he’s somewhat overvalued in most leagues. I’m not in love with Cobb, or his matchup this week.
WR – Jordy Nelson
He’s usually cheaper than Cobb, and can provide the same upside at a lower cost. Nelson was terrific in the Bengals game, making several tough catches that I’m sure even caught the QB’s eyes.
WR – James Jones
Even cheaper than Nelson, but is highly inconsistent. I’d avoid him this week, as this matchup isn’t a total greenlight for the WR’s.
TE – Jermichael Finley
Missed last week with a concussion, but practiced fully this week. He’s super cheap on some sites, but you’ve got to be weary of a guy that just got his bell rung.

 

Jacksonville at St. Louis Rams
Vegas O/U = 41.5
Line = Rams -11

QB – Sam Bradford
The Jaguars actually haven’t given up that many yards to QB’s through 4 weeks, but they have given up 9 TDs with only 1 INT. I wouldn’t roll with Bradford in ALL your daily fantasy lineups this weekend … but if you slip him in a FEW of them, I won’t blame you.
RB – Daryl Richardson
It’s too bad he hasn’t taken the RB job, as this is a GREAT matchup against the WORST RUNNING D in the league. The theory running around the Rams is that Richardson will share time with Pead and others this week. Richardson should be one of the cheaper RB’s this week, so make sure if you have him in your lineup – you have some studs … just in case Richardson blows it against a cupcake matchup.
RB – Maurice Jones-Drew
The Rams are one of the worst running defenses too (remember DeMarco Murray a few weeks ago). The problem is the Jags fall behind in most games, making it impossible to get it going with Drew. He doesn’t have a game this year over 50 yards … eeek. It could be that he’s washed up. While you can save some money with Jones-Drew this week, I consider him a risky play – as his career could be over.
WR – Cecil Shorts
If there is a bright spot on the Jags, it’s Shorts. His numbers are solid. He’s not a horrible play – as the Jags are always down a few scores and he gets ‘garbage time’ touches. Make sure you have some studs on your team though – this is a risky play given the state of the Jags.
WR – Tavon Austin
Had 6 catches the first 3 games then only 2 last week against SF. I don’t like rookies, and I think the Rams will get ahead in this game – which might limit Austin’s touches late in the game.
TE – Jared Cook
Pretty decent numbers, if you want to punt the TE position but still have some upside – this is a pretty solid pickup.

 

Kansas City at Tennessee
Vegas O/U = 38.5
Line = Chiefs -2.5

RB – Jamaal Charles – Check Injury Status
Not a great matchup this week. Vegas doesn’t like this one going big on the scoreboard, and the Titans are actually pretty solid against the run. Had Charles in last week – I’ll sit him this week.
RB – Chris Johnson
The Chiefs aren’t the best run D in the league, but they have a solid pass D .. and don’t have to worry about that much this week. CJ2K has ZERO TD’s this season, and his carries have been trending down. I’d sit him this week too.

 

New England at Cincinnati
Vegas O/U = 45
Line = Pick ’em

QB – Tom Brady
The Bengals are pretty solid against the pass, but they have injuries … and this is Tom Brady. I expect him to have at least 2 TD’s in this game, and it could be more. Almost every QB has looked good (except Big Ben) against the Bengals this year.
RB – Giovanni Bernard
Is basically the starter but it’s tough to judge his value week-to-week. Should have some opportunities this week to catch the ball, as the Patriots will likely go ahead in this game, causing the Bengals to throw (and take BJGE out).
WR – A.J. Green
I love this guy …. BUT …. I think he’s overrated right now. He’s really only had 1 good week, but he’s priced like a superstar. Doesn’t get 8+ catches to really make him valuable unless he gets a TD. I don’t like his matchup against a sneaky tough New England secondary. Sit A.J. until he gets rolling.
WR – Danny Amendola
Beasted week 1 and looks like he’s coming back this week. Could be a value pick if he picks up where he left off. Not a horrible gamble considering he’s cheap because he’s been hurt.
WR – Julian Edleman
For some reason, on DraftKings, he’s pretty cheap so I’ve been running him each week because of the PPR consistency. However with Amendola coming back this week – I will be sitting him until further notice.
WR – Kenbrell Thompkins
Is Tom Tom GPS’s new boy-toy … but with other weapons like Gronk and Amendola coming back, I think his price on some sites may have caught up with his value. I do like his matchup though if he’s cheap enough.
TE – Jermaine Gresham – Tyler Eifert
Both get about the same amount of looks (not many) per game, but Gresham has been more consistent. I think there are better options, although Tony Gonzalez sure did look good against the Patriots last week.

 

New Orleans at Chicago
Vegas O/U = 48.5
Line = Pick ’em

QB – Drew Brees
Da Bears have given up the 9th most yards to QB’s this year with 6 TDs and 6 INTs. Brees is another solid play this week. As long as the weather is good in Chicago this weekend.
QB – Jay Cutler
Threw a ton of passes last week, but they lost. I don’t like his matchup as the Saints are tough against QBs this year.
RB – Matt Forte
The Saints have a pretty weak run D (449 yards through 4 games) Forte is expensive, but a productive back each week.
RB – Darren Sproles
His carries will never be a big part of his game, you’re hoping for catches. Last week he had a great game, and if you want to roll the dice with Sproles again this week, it’s not the worst play.
WR – Brandon Marshall
The last 2 weeks haven’t been that great for him, and he’s on the injury list but should play. I don’t like his matchup – and you’re paying a premium price for the name. I’d find better value at the WR postion even with this likely being a shoot-out.
WR – Marques Colston
Had his best week yardage wise last week, but still only has 1 TD. He doesn’t get enough catches for a PPR, so unless you think he will get dancing in the end-zone this week, its a somewhat risky play.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
A super cheap play on most sites, and appears to be getting better each week this year. Risky play – since he’s not going to dominate, but if you run out of money and need a cheap WR – it’s not the worst play for the price.
TE – Jimmy Graham
BEAST. Period. If you want to spend $$$ on TE, he should be one of about 3 that you have to choose from.
TE – Martellus Bennett
Is on the injury list, so I’d probably avoid him this week even if he plays. But effective this year given his price tag.

 

Philadelphia at NY Giants
Vegas O/U = 53.5
Line = Giants -1

QB – Michael Vick
The Giants are tied for a league high 10 TDs allowed to QB’s this season. Green light if you want the dog fighter in your lineup this week.
QB – Eli Manning
Vegas has the Giants as a (tiny) favorite and a huge O/U for NFL games. The Eagles have given up the 2nd most yards to QBs and the 2nd most TDs. I don’t LOVE Eli like his brother, but he’s got a great matchup this week.
RB – LeSean McCoy
The Giants have given up the 5th most yards to RBs this year. Green light for shady.
WR – Victor Cruz
Only has 1 off-game this year. He’s producing more than AJ Green and Brandon Marshall – and his price is often lower.
WR – DeSean Jackson
Great matchup. D-Jack it up this week.

 

Seattle at Indy
Vegas O/U = 43.5
Line = Seattle -1

QB – Andrew Luck
Bad matchup, in fact he’s cheaper than Wilson this week on most sites. It’s not like this game is in Seattle, but their secondary is still pretty tough.
QB – Russell Wilson
I don’t think he does enough to be a mid-priced QB. You’d be better off going with Philip Rivers or someone like that with more TD upside. Indy is also very good against the pass this year.
RB – Trent Richardson
Got the load last week, Seattle isn’t going to shut him down – but they’ve only given up 2 TDs.
RB – Marshawn Lynch
Indy is pretty solid, but this is beast mode. I don’t love him, but I don’t hate him since they should rely on the run in this game.

 

Sunday LATE Games

Carolina at Arizona
Vegas O/U = 42
Line = -Panthers 1.5

QB – Cam Newton
Arizona has given up the 12th most yards to QB’s with 8 TDs through 4 games. Cam might be firing on all cylinders after a week off.
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
Carolina is pretty good against the pass through 3 weeks. I’d stay away.
WR – Steve Smith
Is pretty cheap on most sites, and is worth putting in over a guy that might not get any touches – since Smith seems to get a few catches every game.
TE – Greg Olsen
Is a cheap option at TE – so if you spend all your money elsewhere, this isn’t the worst option at a bargain price.

 

Denver at Dallas RED HOT MATCHUP
Vegas O/U = 56.5
Line = Denver -7

QB – Peyton Manning
There’s not much to say. Dallas has given up the 5th most yards to QBs and tied for giving up the most TDs at 10. You should play Manning if you have other cheaper players you like this week.
QB – Tony Romo
The Broncos pass D has given up the 3rd most yards to QBs this year. Tony is a solid play this week since they should be throwing all game.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Denver limits RBs yards because they have teams behind in games. Murray will have chances in this game, but it’s risky because the Broncos could have the Cowboys in throw-mode all game.
RB – Knowshon Moreno
The Cowboys haven’t given up a rushing TD yet this season, and they have kept RB’s in check most weeks. I’d avoid all Denver backs this week.
WR – Thomas, Decker, Welker
Pick one – and you probably won’t be disappointed. I’m not a psychic – so I can’t tell you which one will be best, but I like all three this week.
WR – Dez Bryant
Has been BEASTING with Miles Austin out. Great play again this week considering they will be in throw-mode against Denver.
TE – Jason Witten
Solid, good matchup. I like other TE’s better, but he’s not bad for the price.
TE – Julius Thomas
Still only $4,500 dollars on DraftKings … which is a low price for a TE of this caliber. Not sure how you can’t have him in your lineup at that price.

 

Sunday NIGHT Games

Houston at San Francisco
Vegas O/U = 42
Line = SF -6.5

QB – Colin Kaepernick
The Texans have given up the LEAST amount of yards against QB’s this week. Start Manning, Romo, Stafford, Brees (and others). Kap will get over it.
RB – Arian Foster
The 49ers is not that great. With Aldon Smith in rehab and if Willis misses another game – I like Foster this week.
RB – Frank Gore
The Texans have given up the 10th most yards on the ground, but only 2 TDs. Gore had a great week last week, and may try to keep things going this week.
WR – Andre Johnson
Not a big fan of his matchup, but I wasn’t last week either and he got 100 yards. He’s a great player, but I think you can find better value/matchup at WR this week.
WR – Anquan Boldin
Not a fan of his matchup against the Texans this week who have given up the least amount of yards to WR’s. He also will be followed by Pro-Bowler Jonathan Joseph.
TE – Vernon Davis
Came back last week and got a TD. I like VD – just his matchup is bad this week and I’d avoid him.
TE – Owen Daniels
If the 49ers are without Patrick Willis again, it might be worth looking at this lower priced TE this week.

 

San Diego at Oakland (This game was moved to a primetime start because of MLB playoffs)
Vegas O/U = 44.5
Line = Chargers -4.5

QB – Philip Rivers
Was BUTTER last week. Pure butter. This week he’s a higher priced option and before Peyton came in and ripped up the Raiders, they weren’t that bad against the pass. But, the Chargers are a pretty high-powered offense, so I don’t mind if you slip him in your lineups this week – just don’t expect him to repeat what he did last week.
QB – Terrelle Pryor
I’m not going to start him in any of my lineups – but I could see the reasoning if you do decide to risk playing him. The Chargers are pretty bad against the run and even worse against the pass … which could mean Pryor could have a solid game if he can keep his head on straight this week.
RB – Darren McFadden
Got burned because I had him in last week – and watched the backup come in and get all the yards he was going to get. I’d steer clear of him this week, but if you want to play him – the matchup is good.
RB – Danny Woodhead
Worth taking a look at, however the Raiders defense is actually pretty good against the pass (where Woodhead goes to work). The Raiders aren’t that great at run defense, so I consider this a coin-flip type play.
TE – Antonio Gates
The only consistent option each week for the Chargers is Gates. More of a yellow-light matchup this week, but I like Gates if you want to spend the money on him.

 

Monday Night Game

NY Jets at Atlanta
Vegas O/U = 43.5
Line = Falcons -9.5

QB – Matt Ryan
Matty Ice … The Jets haven’t given up that much yardage to QBs this year, but 7 TDs with only 1 INT is near the bottom of the barrel. Solid matchup.
RB – Bilal Powell
Check Chris Ivory’s status. But even if Ivory is out again this week – Atlanta is tough against the run and they are a favorite to have the Jets behind in this game (which might increase Powell’s PPR value).
RB – Jackson, Snelling, Rodgers
If Jackson is out – I probably would favor Snelling because he seems to be the one they give the ball to when they are just trying to run the game out. I don’t like the matchup – the Jets D is not bad against the run and they haven’t given up very many TDs.
WR – Julio Jones
Beast. Been playing like a beast most games too. Like him over other ‘elite guys’ like A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall who haven’t been beasting every game.
TE – Tony Gonzalez
GREAT game last week. Not the best matchup, this HOFer can catch balls everywhere. I like other top-priced TE’s but if you want to save a player for MNF, TonyG is not the worst option.

 

Week 5 — QB Picks

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