WPI’s Week 3 Daily Fantasy Football Strategy & Picks

Thursday Game:

Kansas City @ Philadelphia
Vegas O/U = 50.5
Line: Philly -3
The Kansas City defense is a top 5 defense in terms of yards per game allowed. RED FLAG

QB – Michael Vick – $8,900
Has had good weeks, but the Chiefs defense isn’t all that bad.
RB – LeSean McCoy $9,600
One of the best plays, still is solid even if he has a down week because he catches the ball enough in PPR’s.
RB – Jamaal Charles – $8,800
RB’s haven’t always gone off against Philly, but KC may look to control the ball in this one.
WR – DeSean Jackson – $9,100
Undervalued on most sites through 2 weeks, might not be the best play at WR this week at this price.

 

Sunday MORNING GAMES

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
Vegas O/U = 48.5
Line: New Orleans Saints -7.5
Arizona is a middle-of-the-pack NFL defense through 2 week. Gave up 2 scores to Calvin Johnson last week.

Possible Plays

WRLarry Fitzgerald – $7,800
Has a hamstring injury … I wouldn’t play him.
TE – Jimmy Graham $7,900
Had a HUGE week 2, can’t really go wrong here except he cost you.
RB – Darren Sproles $6,500
Your hoping he gets 5+ catches in a PPR format, otherwise he’s overpriced. Got popped last week and is an injury concern.
QB – Drew Brees $9,200
Pretty good matchup – you just hope Brees has more TD’s than last week.

 

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings
Vegas O/U = 40.5
Line: Minnesota -5
The Browns have a decent defense and both QB’s work the TE – meaning you probably should play the WR’s on these teams. Vegas doesn’t see this one being high scoring as well.

Possible Plays

QBBrandon Weeden $5,900
Was removed from last weeks game and shouldn’t be anywhere near your lineup this week (or any week).
RB – Adrian Peterson $8,900
The Browns actually are solid against the run … there are better options than AP.
RBTrent Richardson $6,700 – GOT TRADED TO INDY
Minnesota has given up 4 yards per carry through 2 weeks. Trent’s a decent value at this price.
TE – Jordan Cameron $5,700
Jordan Campbell may be throwing to this Jordan, that limits his upside this week.
TE – Kyle Rudolph $4,200
Doesn’t get enough catches to raise his value in PPR leagues – so you hope he gets in the end zone, which he has done.

 

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins
Vegas O/U = 49
Line: Washington -1
RGIII looks real gimpy and hasn’t really put up good numbers until it was ‘garbage time’ for his team.

Possible Plays

QB – Robert Griffin III – $8,900
I don’t think he’s healthy and you’re not getting the rushing yards/TD’s you need from him.
QB – Matthew Stafford – $9,100
Has put up decent numbers – and every QB has looked great against Washington = solid play.
RBReggie Bush – $8,000
Reggie got hurt last week – doesn’t look serious but he’s a huge risk for re-injury at any time.
RB – Joique Bell – $4,600
If Reggie Bush can’t go – this will be a risky … but possibly huge value/sleeper of the week.
RB – Alfred Morris – $7,200
Got busy last week for the 1st time, and is a solid play against a team giving up 4.1 yards per carry.
WR – Calvin Johnson – $9,500
Great play against a defense that has giving up HUGE numbers to WR’s. Problem is CJ is really expensive this week.
WR – Nate Burleson – $4,000
If you blow all your money and need a cheap WR – Nate has 13 catches on the year, and Calvin gets doubled.
WR – Pierre Garcon – $7,400
Had a BIG week last week (mostly in garbage time) … but it all counts and he probably will have another solid week this week.
TE – Jordan Reed – $3,500
If you want to punt the tight end position … Reed is cheap and has some upside.

 

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas O/U = ??
Line: ??
The Packers should make mince meat of a weak Bengals secondary. I expect them to throw-throw and did I say throw against the Bengals.

Possible Plays

QB – Aaron Rodgers – $10,100
A-Rod might actually be worth the price this week. The Packers should destroy the Bengals secondary.
QB – Andy Dalton – $7,200
If you want to experiment (like in 1 matchup) with AD in your lineup, it’s not a horrible play for the price. The Bengals should be down in this game, and they love to throw the ball.
RBEddie Lacy – $5,600
Got krunked in last weeks game, and the backup looked beast = don’t play Lacy.
RB – James Starks – $5,000
Won’t be a ‘sleeper’ based on how he played last week and I expect him in ~20% of lineups this week. I don’t like his matchup against the strength of the Bengals D.
RB – BenJarvus Green-Ellis – $4,500
Is the starter and gets the bulk of the load. Just not active enough in the passing game to make him worth it.
RB – Giovani Bernard –
Had 2 TD’s last week and gets touches in the red-zone … just still very risky play with BJGE still fully healthy.
WR – A.J. Green – $9,500
If you want to spend big money on a WR – you can’t go wrong here.
WR – Randall Cobb – $8,300
Gets tons of catches but needs TD’s to go his way for upside at this price.
WR – Jordy Nelson – $7,400
Had 2 touchdowns last week – and should be targeted again this week against the Bengals.
WR – James Jones – $6,300
Went from 0 catches to a BIG week 2 … will probably get plenty of looks again this week. Decent value at this price.

 

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Vegas O/U = 45
Line: Houston -1
Baltimore may be without Ray Rice and Andre Johnson had a concussion last week.

Possible Plays

QB – Joe Flacco – $7,000
If for some reason you want to save money on QB, Flacco faces a team that has given up big yardage on occasion to QB’s but only play Flacco if it’s your last resort.
QB – Matt Schaub – $7,000
Possibly without Andre Johnson, makes a bad play even worse against a defense that can still play a bit.
RB – Bernard Pierce – $4,500
If Ray Rice doesn’t play, I think slipping Pierce into your lineup is ok … problem is there will be plenty of other grinders that insert him into their lineups as well.
RB Ray Rice – $6,700
He got hurt last week and doesn’t look like he’s practicing. Don’t play Rice at all costs this week.
RB – Arian Foster – $8,100
Baltimore is still tough against the run giving up only 130 yards on the ground through 2 weeks.
WR – Andre Johnson – $7,200
Got concussed last week. If he doesn’t practice this week – he’s very risky at this price.
WR – Torrey Smith – $6,000
The Texans gave up big plays to the Chargers week 1 … if you have Torrey in on a few of your matchups this week, it’s not the worst play.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins – $6,000
Has produced this year, and if Andre Johnson is gone, this guy could step into a bigger role on Sunday.
TE – Owen Daniels – $4,700
Has 2 TD’s this year, and if Andre Johnson is out – could have more targets on Sunday.

 

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers
Vegas O/U = 45.5
Line: Carolina -1

Possible Plays

QB – Cam Newton – $8,400
The Giants have struggled enough to think about putting Cam in this week … but his weapons are weak.
QB – Eli Manning $8,100
Don’t like Eli against a sneaky tough defense, but if he’s one of your only options … it could be worse.
WR – Victor Cruz $7,900
Gets his catches each week … but is always nicked up and is listed at probable this week.
WR – Hakeem Nicks $6,800
Has solid numbers this year, is a decent play at this price but Carolina’s defense isn’t that bad.
TE – Greg Olsen – $5,200
Has looked great but isn’t the cheapest TE.
TE – Brandon Myers – $4,900
Has quickly become a target of Eli Manning.

 

San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans
Vegas O/U = 43.5
Line: Tennessee -3

Possible Plays 

QB – Philip Rivers
Goes against a sneaky tough D this week. Back 2 Back east coast games ++ not having his main WR might hurt the lighting bolts this week.
RB – Chris Johnson $6,700
The Chargers have given up 4.4 yards per carry through 2 games, and Tennessee runs more than most teams.
RB – Ryan Matthews – $5,000
The Titans have given up 4.7 yards per carry through 2 weeks to RB’s.
WR – Eddie Royal – $7,000
No longer a sleeper at this price … might have a tough time being the #1 option with Floyd most likely out.
TE – Antonio Gates – $5,100
Has had some good weeks, not that bad of a price with Floyd out he might get more targets.

 

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Vegas O/U = 47
Line: Dallas -3.5

Possible Plays

QB – Sam Bradford – $7,400
If you want to save money on a QB, Bradford is not a bad option given his first 2 weeks.
QB – Tony Romo – $7,800
Tony might have a good week – but he’s probably not 100% healthy either.
RB – DeMarco Murray – $6,300
The team wants to get him more involved and there’s not much pressure from a backup RB on this team.
RB – Daryl Richardson – $4,100
If he can get 5 – 6 catches, he provides sleeper value at the RB position. Has yet to score a TD though.
WR – Dez Bryant – $7,700
Is questionable, and if he doesn’t practice this week – you shouldn’t run him in all your lineups.
WR – Tavon Austin – $5,900
You need him to score TD’s to really get great value, but he should get 4 or 5 catches.
WR – Miles Austin – $5,000
You need him to get a ton of catches like week 1 but if Dez is hurt, his opportunities to get open might actually go down.
TE – Jason Witten – $6,100
Might benefit if Dez plays or not because Tony can always find him.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
Vegas O/U = 47
Line: New England -7

Possible Plays

QB – Tom Brady – $8,300
Even Tom can’t make his WR crew look good. He’s not putting up big enough numbers to play him.
RB – Doug Martin – $8,500
Got over 100 yards last week, but the lack of catches & TD’s leaves you with better options at RB in a PPR.
WR – Julian Edelman – $6,000
Tom is finding this WR enough per game to make him worth a look in a PPR.

 

LATE GAMES

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
Vegas O/U = 44.5
Line: Miami -3

QB – Matt Ryan – $9,000
Pretty solid option, but Miami is actually pretty good this year.
QB – Ryan Tannehill – $6,300
If he can throw 2 TD’s (instead of 1 like the first 2 weeks) he is a great value at this price.
WR – Julio Jones – $9,100
Listed as questionable, so make sure he practices and starts if you put him in your lineup.
WR – Brian Hartline – $5,000
Had a big week 1 but only 5 catches last week.
TE – Charles Clay $4,200
Had a TD last week … rushing. No TD catches yet … but had a good week 2.

 

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Vegas O/U = 39
Line: NY Jets -1

Possible Plays

RB – C.J. Spiller – $7,500
If he gets a TD this week and runs/catches like he should … he’s a great play this week at that price.
WR – Stevie Johnson $6,000
Had TD catches in the last 2 games and had a real good week 2.

 

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers
Vegas O/U = 46
Line: 49ers -10

Possible Plays

QB – Colin Kaepernick – $8.800
This run/pass threat might be a good option this week at home. He still had ok numbers against Seattle in a tough environment.
QB – Andrew Luck – $8,500
Hasn’t lit up the TD board … this is almost a home game for this former Stanford Cardinal.
RB – Trent Richardson $6,700 – GOT TRADED TO INDY THIS WEEK
I don’t LOVE the matchup … and I doubt he would be used much in the passing game, but they’ll hand the guy the ball.
WR – Anquan Boldin – $6,800
He’ll never do what he did week 1 but Kaepernick should have more lanes to throw his way this week, but he’s overpriced.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks
Vegas O/U = 40.5
Line: Seattle -19

Possible Plays

RB – Marshawn Lynch – $9,000
With Seattle expected to be up big, Lynch should get plenty of touches.

 

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas O/U = 40
Line: Bears -2.5

Possible Plays

QB – Jay Cutler – $7,300
Andy Dalton didn’t look to bad against the Steelers on MNF … and the Bears beat the Bengals week 1. Cutler’s not a horrible value here.
RB – Matt Forte – $7,800
Should have plenty of opportunities against a weak Steelers team.
WR – Brandon Marshall – $8,700
A.J. Green was held in check by a Steelers corner, I’d probably keep Marshall on the bench this week.
TE – Martellus Bennett – $5,500
Was in my lineup the first 2 weeks and has 3 total TD’s. The Bengals TE’s had solid games against the weak Steelers D.

 

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Vegas O/U = 49
Line: Bears -15

QB – Peyton Manning – $10,700
Can’t go wrong with Peyton … should have a solid game at home, but might not be throwing late.
QB – Terrelle Pryor – $6,000
At this price you have to take note. He’ll be relied on to make plays as they will be down in this game.
WR – Demaryius Thomas – $7,900
The Broncos spread it around but Thomas can make the big plays.
WR – Wes Welker – $6,900
I like Wes, but again, Broncos spread it around so he may or may not have a big game.
WR – Eric Decker $5,800
No TD’s yet, but got on track in week 2.
TE – Julius Thomas – $4,900
At this price and this matchup … if he’s not in your lineup in at least one league … you’re crazy.

 

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